As Ivory Coast approaches its presidential election in October 2025, opposition parties are making strategic moves to challenge the long-standing dominance of the ruling party. On March 10, 2025, fifteen opposition parties announced the formation of the Coalition for Peaceful Alternation in Côte d’Ivoire (CAP-CI), aiming to present a united front against the incumbent administration. This development has significant implications for the nation’s political landscape and its economic future.
Historical Context and Political Landscape
Since gaining independence in 1960, Ivory Coast has experienced periods of political stability interspersed with turbulence. The country endured a civil war in the early 2000s, followed by a contentious presidential election in 2010 that led to a severe political crisis. President Alassane Ouattara has been in power since 2010, securing re-election in 2015 and 2020. His tenure has been marked by economic growth, but also by criticisms regarding political freedoms and electoral processes.
The political arena is primarily dominated by three blocs:
- The Ruling Party: The Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP), led by President Ouattara.
- The CAP-CI Coalition: A newly formed alliance of fifteen opposition parties, including the Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI) and the Movement of Capable Generations (MGC).
- The African Peoples’ Party – Côte d’Ivoire (PPA-CI): Led by former President Laurent Gbagbo, this party has opted not to join the CAP-CI coalition.
Formation of CAP-CI: A Strategic Alliance
The CAP-CI coalition brings together a diverse array of political figures and parties:
- Simone Ehivet Gbagbo: Former First Lady and president of the MGC, who played a pivotal role in initiating the coalition.
- Tidjane Thiam: Leader of the PDCI and former CEO of Credit Suisse, serving as the coordinator of CAP-CI.
- Charles Blé Goudé: Head of the Pan-African Congress for Justice and People’s Equality (Cojep).
- Pascal Affi N’Guessan: Leader of the Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) and former Prime Minister.
This coalition aims to address longstanding concerns about the electoral system, advocating for reforms to ensure transparent and inclusive elections. In August 2024, many of these parties, along with civil society organizations, had already called for comprehensive electoral reforms, highlighting issues such as the revision of the electoral list and the publication of polling station results.
Internal Dynamics and Challenges
Despite the formation of CAP-CI, internal challenges persist:
- PDCI Leadership Contest: Former Trade Minister Jean-Louis Billon has expressed intentions to seek the PDCI’s nomination for the presidency, challenging Tidjane Thiam’s leadership. reuters.com
- PPA-CI’s Stance: The party led by Laurent Gbagbo has not joined the coalition, reflecting potential ideological differences or strategic disagreements.
Government Response and Political Climate
The ruling RHDP has maintained a firm stance against opposition activities:
- Arrests of Opposition Figures: In October 2024, Charles Rodel Dosso, deputy secretary-general of the PPA-CI, was arrested for encouraging a prohibited protest against the high cost of living and forced evictions. lemonde.fr
- Suppression of Protests: In September 2024, members of the citizen platform Agir pour le Peuple (AGIP) were arrested and sentenced to prison for participating in peaceful demonstrations addressing economic grievances. lemonde.fr
Economic Implications and Business Environment
The political developments in Ivory Coast have significant implications for the business community:
- Economic Stability: Political uncertainty can affect investor confidence, potentially impacting foreign direct investment and economic growth.
- Policy Continuity: A change in administration could lead to shifts in economic policies, affecting sectors such as agriculture, mining, and telecommunications.
- Regional Influence: As one of West Africa’s largest economies, Ivory Coast’s political stability is crucial for regional economic integration and trade.
Conclusion
The formation of the CAP-CI coalition represents a significant development in Ivory Coast’s political landscape ahead of the October 2025 presidential election. While the coalition seeks to unify opposition forces and advocate for electoral reforms, internal challenges and the ruling party’s response will play critical roles in shaping the country’s future. For business leaders in Asia, Africa, and globally, monitoring these political dynamics is essential for informed decision-making and strategic planning.
